Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Schmidt opens up lead on Wulsin. Likely GOP retention.

In a poll released today, SurveyUSA has Congresswoman Jean Schmidt expanding her lead over left-wing challenger Victoria Wells/Victoria Wulsin. The poll was paid for by WCPO, a TV station in Cincinnati. When asked the question:

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jean Schmidt? Democrat Victoria Wulsin? Or some other candidate?

Likely voters selected Schmidt over Wulsin by 8 points. SurveyUSA noted:
Schmidt Edges Wulsin, Keeps OH2 House Seat for GOP:

In an election for US House of Representatives in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 10/17/06, Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt edges Democrat Victoria Wulsin by 8 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 3 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Schmidt gets 48%. Wulsin gets 40%. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/20/06, Schmidt has gained 3 points and Wulsin has lost 2 points. Schmidt had led by 3, now leads by 8. Schmidt leads by 10 points among voters under 35. 4 weeks ago, Wulsin led this group by 6, a 16-point swing. Schmidt leads by 24 points among voters age 35-49, an 18-point improvement. Voters over 50 are evenly split. Schmidt leads by 15 points among men and by 3 points among women. Republicans support Schmidt 6:1. Democrats support Wulsin 12:1. Independents break 4:3 for Wulsin. Schmidt leads by 16 points among voters with household income over $80K, a 15-point improvement. Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 82% support Schmidt. Of those who disapprove of Bush's performance, 77% support Wulsin. President Bush's approval rating among likely voters in Ohio's 2nd CD is 51%. In the past month, voter enthusiasm has increased in this district. The percentage of "likely voters" in SurveyUSA's turnout model has increased from 62% to 69% of registered voters. 4 weeks ago, 49% of likely voters identified themselves as Republican, today 53%. 4 weeks ago, 31% of likely voters identified themselves as Democrat; today 29%. Schmidt was first elected to Congress in a special election in 2005.

Also interesting to note is that the percentage of likely voters who self-identify as Republicans has increased by 4%.

The information is clear. Congresswoman Jean Schmidt will continue to represent the 2nd District of Ohio. This seat will be retained by the GOP.


TNP said...

WTF, I found this out from Congresswoman Jean Schmidt last nite. Awesome! Thanks for this clear, exciting post. I'm gonna refer several of Finney's Fanatics (AKA COAST) to your blog, just to rub their noses in it....

VikingSpirit said...

Note how Nate Noy isn't included in this poll.

TNP said...

Noy and Condit may split the bottom 1% of the vote if they're lucky.

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